Hong Kong Liberal Religious Forum

Humanist Movement @ Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanist_Movement

The Humanist Movement is an international volunteer organisation that promotes nonviolence and non-discrimination. It is not an institution. It takes its inspiration from the current of thought referred to as New or Universal Humanism that has been developed since 1969 by its founder Mario Rodríguez Cobos, pen name: Silo.

The project of the Humanist Movement is to eradicate war, hunger, poverty and economic exploitation across the planet and develop a new system based on the value of human life as the central value, higher than money, power, prestige, etc. This vision of the future is called the Universal Human Nation. The methodology used is to work in groups and undertake personal development activities as well as social projects.

In the UK and USA there has been confusion between the Humanist Movement and organizations such as the British Humanist Association and the American Humanist Association who promote secular humanism.

New Humanism www.humanism.org
New Humanist www.newhumanist.us

Three "organisms" (organizations) of the Humanist Movement:
The Community for Human Development www.thecommunityhd.org
Humanist Party www.humanistparty.org.uk (UK)
Centre of Cultures www.centerofcultures.info www.centreofcultures.org.uk (UK)

An international group: Humanist International www.humanist-international.org

Hong Kong group:
Humanist Association of Hong Kong 香港人文協會
http://home.pacific.net.hk/~tonyhen/
http://humanistassociationhongkong.yolasite.com
http://humanistofhongkong.ning.com/profile/tonyhen



My comment:
The Humanist Movement (Siloist), also known as New or Universal Humanism, is a distinct movement with well-defined philosophy and dedicated organizations with structured hierarchy, and not to be confused with either Secular Humanism or Religious Humanism.

Humanist Association of Hong Kong

The Humanist Newsletter
- among friends of universal humanism in Asia-Pacific

Vol II, Number 23 - November 2008
**********************************************************

Page 1 - EDITORIAL
Page 2 - A "STEADY STATE" ECONOMY
Page 4 - CLIMATE CHANGE - WHICH DIRECTION?
Page 7 - OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND SOLUBILITY PUMP
Page 8 - SOURCE OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASES
Page 9 - THE DOOMSDAY SIDE AND THE OTHER SIDE
Page 12 - EMISSIONS TRADING
Page 13 - RAJENDRA PACHAURI INTERVIEW
Page 16 - HUMAN BEING: INTENTION AND TRANSFORMATION
Page 19 - NEPAL HUMANIST FORUM: ASIA HUMANIST FORUMS
Page 20 - CONTACT US - DETAILS


Editorial,
We start with, what else - the crisis. Today's mainstream economists are dismiss our ideas as naive and utopian, but with financial markets crashing, food prices spiralling, the world warming and the peak oil phenomenon - real or unreal - with us, the signs are all around that the old way of economics is gone and what is called for is not an overhaul but a paradigm shift.
In this issue the main topic is Climate Change. Here, the challenge is made regarding the prioritisation of this matter against other impending possibilities, like nuclear war. Indeed, the nuclear weapons issue is for us the major concern.
In the previous issue the sister publication Swings and Roundabouts was introduced as it’s theme titled: The Real Price Of Rice, loomed appropriate given the food price-distribution problem so obvious in that moment - now it is a built-in problem and the answer of food aid to the starving has been accepted [in other quarters] as the way to go.
It isn’t of course, the way to go is localised control over foods from production to distribution, as detailed in that newsletter with Rice in the title.
Climate Change and Renewable Energy are linked topics. This latter theme was covered in the Swings & Roundabouts sister newsletter recently. If anyone wants to see what was covered under that topic head then do get in touch and we can email that issue of Swings & Roundabouts.
For good measure, the well known climatologist Rajendra Pachauri is interviewed. People need to have stands on issues, just as organisations do, especially political organisations but not everyone gives time to develop an understanding of what’s going on in the worlds of general affairs, political affairs, technology and on the environmental front. Well, this is our delving and we would like to share it. Hope it helps.
Tony Henderson
Editor

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World March for Peace and Non-Violence
“So that the voices of millions who yearn for peace can be heard as they call for the end of war and all forms of violence.”

Start Now
Begins in New Zealand October 2, 2009 and concludes in the South American Andes Mountains, January 2, 2010.
World Without Wars - and without violence
International co-ordinator Rafael de la Rubia
rafael@marchamundial.org
www.marchamundial.org


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A "steady state" economy
Following an interview of Tony Henderson by Shamsul Basunia of the Weekly Economic Times, Dhaka, following Mr Henderson’s visit to Dhaka to participate in the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry golden jubilee celebrations.

The global instability that has resulted from errors committed by the economically developed countries has entangled the less developed economies in a world-wide-web of financial shifts that threatens to halt these country’s advances.
The effect though might be long-term beneficial as the planet cannot sustain such industrialisation supporting western consumption patterns - a consumerism rolling along uncontrollably alongside the explosive population growths of Asia would kill the planet. This does not mean these populations cannot share the benefits those developed economies now experience, just that it’s better that the mistakes are not repeated.
What started out as housing problems in the USA with its bankrupt dept-ridden system and its innocent enough sounding mortgage problems - points at, essentially, the source of the problems - that the land has been appropriated from the people along with ownership rights, usage and territoriality and that has put everything in jeopardy.
The landlords own the land, but really, the banks are the real possessors of the land and its built-up assets either by direct ownership or as collateral and banks have held control over pricing for use of property and land for generations, in league with insurance companies.
Rents are sky-high in cities, whether New York or Dhaka, and any reasonable person would be hard put to see how those prices are engineered. Value is based on ‘expert’ opinion and a controlled property market, there is nothing intrinsic determining value today.
Now, given the establishment of sound legal footings governing land rights - because such is in dire short supply in less developed economies - next comes the application of work in relation to land and that in general is termed business. The whole point of engaging in business is to generate revenue and that revenue must be seen as part of the economic workings of society.
A society is at base its people and they want housing, they want jobs, they want safe transport systems, they want affordable education, they want food security, clean air and water, they seek a quality human life when given the opportunity - these topics have to figure in the discussions initiating any new business as the bottom line - not just profit figures.
The main principles of any type of humanism applies to business and economics just as much as they do to daily life and relations among people in society, at root, spoken of as: “Treat others as you would like to be treated.” Such a behavioural norm invites the word reciprocation into the conversation and that word - akin to co-operative, takes on a new dimension in places like Bangladesh as co-operation and care for the group rather than for the individual is a deeply imbued attitude there in people’s relations.
Number one principle is the placement of the human being as central value - not money. With this everything changes, with this principle banking is different. The USA’s and European dole-out to keep the economy running should have went direct to businesses not to banks - not that expectations are high or any good long-term will come of that spending as the whole system is out of kilter!
Another principle affirms the equality of all human beings - not just under law but in the moral right to a life, to having an aim of a better life, and this brings into play healthy market forces leading to more inclusive business models, participatory models.
This means staff, workers, sit on governing boards and have equal vote on how the profits are spent.
Then there is the acknowledgment of personal and cultural diversity and the maintenance and nurturing of that diversity. This is a recognition of how things are, the multiplicity evident everywhere, in Nature and in human societies. This acknowledgment fructifies this reality and means provisioning in a million-and-one different ways the million-and-one different needs - that’s healthy and permanent good business
This prior principle affirming diversity has a concomitant feature of regaling in the freedom of ideas and beliefs, a complete freedom. In that freedom lies the potential going towards the development of knowledge beyond that accepted as absolute truth. That is: no to dogmatism. This unleashes the forces of science and technology and defeats the dead-ends of superstitions and taboos. It frees up education - the basic building block of the efficient and effective business mind, whether farmer or banker.
Underpinning all of these principles promoting active adventures of the human spirit and fundamental to universal humanism is the rejection of violence in all affairs - no discrimination - none - and always keeping to the lynchpin tenets of peace and non-violence.
This implied vision is one John Stuart Mill, one of the founders of classical economics, would have approved of. In his Principles of Political Economy, published in 1848, he predicted that once the work of economic growth was done, a "stationary" economy would emerge in which we could focus on human improvement: "There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress... for improving the art of living and much more likelihood of it being improved, when minds cease to be engrossed by the art of getting on."
Today's mainstream economists dismiss such ideas as naive and utopian, but with financial markets crashing, food prices spiralling, the world warming and the peak oil phenomenon - real or unreal - with us, the signs are all around that the old way of economics is gone and what is called for is not an overhaul but a paradigm shift.
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Climate Change - which direction?
By Tony Henderson
Looking at climate change (as against global warming), the different positions taken by different factions holding position on the matter is still causing grief among people. It is quite difficult to simplify the matter - as it is very technical - to allow alleviating actions to be taken in proportion to the threat because the activity of the human species is certainly adding to the problem.
Taking note of the people at the Transnational Institute in the Netherlands because they have it put succinctly:
“At a very fundamental level, our success in dealing with climate change will depend on how quickly and profoundly we can change the way we live our
lives, both collectively and individually. There is an urgent need to restructure
society and our economies away from the ‘business as usual’ scenario of a fossil
fuels-based, car-centered, throwaway economy to one that pragmatically
reduces our emissions levels.
“As an added imperative, there is considerable evidence that we are rapidly
reaching our peak in oil production. ...the most immediate and rational way to limit this chaos would be to take drastic steps to reduce the heavy fossil-fuel dependency of Northern countries.
“Technology plays a crucial role in the necessary transition to a low-carbon
economy, in terms of making our energy use more efficient, and in developing
greater infrastructure for small-scale renewable energy. However, even a
massive deployment of all of the available renewable energy technologies
could still only generate a fraction of our current energy demand.
“To help bridge this gap, the ongoing development of the technology-based response to climate change will need to be met by a sea-change in cultural values, with the implementation of climate-friendly technologies taking place alongside
dramatic cuts in energy consumption levels. This implies a wider cultural
transformation, so that society accords high esteem to energy and climate
conscious behaviour and discourages waste and extravagance. In this scenario,
driving an urban SUV or taking short-haul flights for frivolous reasons
would be seen as irresponsible and antisocial, just as we now see littering or
drink-driving.
“This hegemonic shift towards the primacy of climate-friendly values in popular opinion would be necessary in order for governments to take the difficult decisions involved in seriously cutting emissions levels while still retaining credibility and support from their electorate.

Agreed, something needs doing to curb the negative effects of rampant consumerism and widespread industrialisation of manufacturing and agriculture, but in what manner and to what degree need our methods be changed? Speaking of the individual, the family, and the worker, at that level the actions are pretty clear and need not deviate between the divergent opinion groups (1. Placing climate change as primary 2. Re-prioritising climate change at a lower level) but to see the matter clearly is important at the governmental and big industry level. Thus the topic is worth pursuing - to advise and monitor those responsible organisations.
Human activities are significantly influencing Earth's environment in many ways in addition to causing greenhouse gas emissions that increase the effects of climate change. They are causing changes to Earth's land surface, oceans, coasts and atmosphere and to biological diversity, also to the water cycle and bio-geochemical cycles that are clearly identifiable beyond any natural variability. Collectively, they are equal to some of the great forces of nature in their extent and impact. Global change is real and is happening now. It always has been real of course, even before the advent of mankind’s Industrial Age.
Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that interact with each other and with local- and regional-scale changes that are difficult to predict. Earth system dynamics are characterised by critical thresholds and even occasional abrupt changes. Human activities could inadvertently trigger such changes with severe consequences for Earth's environment and inhabitants. However, this is a long shot.
The Earth System has operated in different states over the last half million years, with abrupt transitions (a decade or less) sometimes occurring between states. Human activities have the potential to switch the Earth System to alternative modes of operation that may prove irreversible and certainly less hospitable to humans and other today-present life. The probability of a human-driven abrupt change in Earth's environment has yet to be quantified but is not negligible - one wave of nuclear bombs would do the trick!


Sea change effects
Life on our planet revolves around water and air availability. The oceans have been likened to a huge condition-conditioner due to its ocean currents that circulate continuously, carrying heat energy and organic-inorganic matter from one place to another in a life producing-maintaining way. There is a definite stability, within thresholds, for those cyclical activities of the ocean currents. The weather systems are also dependant on what happens at sea.
Surely our sun has a lot to do with climate, the radiant rays reaching Earth causing molecular reactions that bring life to the planet, not to overlook the composition of the protective atmosphere that is on the frontline in receiving that solar energy - and cosmic energy from the universe. This combo has to be given first place when it comes to a comprehensive study of life on Earth, human life as one constituent.
Given the concern over global warming it is worthwhile looking at what is said about the most well understood incident in the past that relates to today’s problem - spoken of as the P-E boundary.
The Paleocene / Eocene boundary (P-E boundary), 55 million years ago, was marked by the most rapid and significant climatic perturbation of the Cenozoic Era - the Cenozoic is the most recent of the three major subdivisions of animal history. The other two are the Paleozoic and Mesozoic. The Cenozoic spans only about 65 million years, from the end of the Cretaceous and the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs to the present.
That sudden global warming event, leading to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is associated with changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, the extinction of numerous deep-sea benthic (the ecological region at the lowest level of ocean) cellular life-forms and a major turnover in mammalian life on land which is coincident with the emergence of many of today's major mammalian orders.
The event included global temperature rise by around 6 degrees Centigrade it is said, over a period of 20,000 years, with a corresponding rise in sea level as the whole of the oceans warmed. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose, causing a shallowing of the lysocline.
The lysocline denotes the depth in the ocean below which the rate of dissolution of calcite increases dramatically. This is interesting for researchers in that, shallow marine waters are generally supersaturated in calcite, so as marine organisms (which often have shells made of calcite) die, they will tend to fall downwards without dissolving. As depth (and pressure) increases within the water column, the corresponding calcite saturation of seawater decreases and the shells start to dissolve. At the lysocline, the rate of dissolution increases dramatically. Below this, there exists a depth known as the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) below which the rate of supply of calcite equals the rate of dissolution, such that no calcite is deposited. This depth is the equivalent of a marine snow-line, and averages about 4,500 meters below sea level.
The depth of the CCD varies as a function of the chemical composition of the seawater and its temperature. Furthermore, it is not constant over time, having been globally much shallower in the Cretaceous through to Eocene. If the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide continues to increase, the CCD can be expected to rise, along with the ocean's acidity.
Regional deep-water anoxia may have played a part in marine extinctions. The P-E boundary event has been linked to a degassing of methane ice deposits, which accentuated a pre-existing warming trend. The trigger for that now favoured is an increase in volcanic activity as the main perpetrator.
Researchers also proposed that the increase in carbon sequestration (take-up) by phytoplankton may have contributed to CO2 drawdown and the termination of greenhouse warming at the end of the P/E boundary event.
This shows a balancing mechanism at work and speaks against one way climate change as everything rights itself (or has done so far) within the complexity of the entire system.

Ocean acidification
The ongoing decrease in the relative acidity (in terms of pH) of the Earth's oceans is caused by the uptake of made-made carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Between 1751 and 1994 surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.179 to 8.104 (a change of -0.075).
In the natural carbon cycle, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide represents a balance of fluxes between the oceans, terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Human activities such as land-use changes, the combustion of fossil fuels, and the production of cement, for example, have led to a new flux of CO2 into the atmosphere. Some of this has remained in the atmosphere (where it is responsible for the rise in atmospheric concentrations) and having a blanket effect and warming the air, some is believed to have been taken up by terrestrial plants, and some has been absorbed by the oceans.

Solubility Pump
Defined as the mechanism of carbon exchange that arises through changes in seawater temperature and circulation over the seasons, annually and over longer periods. There are two main directions: (1) processes affecting the air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide; and (2) processes affecting the changes in carbon inventories and transport in the ocean interior.
The solubility of carbon dioxide is greater in cooler water, and, what’s called the thermohaline circulation is driven by the depths of water at high latitudes where seawater is usually cooler and more dense.
The solubility pump has a biological counterpart known as the biological pump.
In common terms, the dense water formed below ice sinks rapidly to the depths taking with it much higher concentrations of those carbons. The area of deep circulation - the global conveyor belt - carries these around the world and keeps them out of contact with the atmosphere for hundreds of years.
Expected future changes in the ocean (e.g. in circulation, temperature, pH) due to climate change are likely to alter the functioning of both the solubility factors and biological pumps. If the natural carbon cycle in the ocean is reduced or ceased to operate and the stored carbon were re-equilibrated with the atmosphere, current concentrations would increase substantially.

But why would that happen?
The term thermohaline - heat-saltiness, determining the density of sea water - circulation refers to the idea of global density-driven circulation of the oceans. Wind-driven surface currents (such as the Gulf Stream) head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, cooling all the while and eventually sinking at high latitudes. This dense water then flows into the ocean basins. While the bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean, the oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1,600 years) upwell in the North Pacific. Extensive mixing therefore takes place between the ocean basins, reducing differences between them and making the Earth's ocean a global system. On their journey, the water masses transport both energy (in the form of relative heat) and matter (solids, dissolved substances and gases) around the globe. As such, the state of the circulation has a big impact on the Earth’s climate and its dependant life forms.
Thus it can be likened to a global conveyor belt. Not to be confused with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) as the MOC only occurs around the meridian and thus is confined to the Atlantic Ocean.
While ocean absorption of anthropogenic - man made - carbon dioxide from the atmosphere acts to decrease climate change, it causes ocean acidification which has negative consequences for presently existing marine ecosystems.
However, again, there is a self-regulatory mechanism at work.

Source of greenhouse effect gases
Three quarters of all carbon dioxide produced by mankind is from massive collective life in cities. Half of that is contributed by buildings which need to either heat or cool their interiors, a lot of the remainder is generated by motorised transport. Thus, it is urban dwellers who are largely responsible for the adverse man-made climate change effects.
Dubai (Burf Al Arab Hotel) and Shanghai (the high-rise Pudong financial district) with constructions that ignore completely any sense of efficient design. Heat trapping glass and concrete leave so much to be desired in these modern agglutinations.
The UAE is one of the biggest new offenders when it comes to buildings and their carbon footprints, consuming resources from far beyond its natural boundaries and population needs - and plain ridiculous - snow sports in the desert! Private cars are another area of major concern - including company vehicles - public services are the way to go.
While the rising economies like those of China and India unthinkingly planning to duplicate the erroneous practices of the developed nations, because they think they can afford it and their pride pushes them, countries such as Bangladesh are in a quandary. The people have suffered sever storms and floods which seemed to verify what was pointed at concerning climate change - its worsening cycle of erratic weather patterns that promise to bring even more devastation.
The natural side of the calamities in Asia is played down and the effects of the developed countries lifestyles are highlighted in the media as a cause, an easy target and one preferred by governments and industry alike as placing the blame their deflects the solution away from their own doors. It is the governments and their links to business that can effect mitigating local changes of the type needed to combat the ills generated by climate change.
The western model is being blamed, the consumerism, the demand for an overly comfortable lifestyle, mass entertainments, destructive tourism, unsatiable markets for the plant’s foodstuffs which are siphoned away from the needy elsewhere. More than a grain of truth there but, that does to excuse action at the local level.
Among the many skeptics who do not place climate change as the priority to be tackled when looking at the world’s problems are passionate environmentalists. These thinkers are horrified to see the obsession with global warming distracting public attention from what is more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet.
These including problems of nuclear weaponry, conflicts in border regions, political woes thus instability which stops progress, medical emergencies where malaria, TB, and other preventable diseases are running rampant, social injustices of all kinds owing a lack of education for life, and environmental degradations outside the realm of climate change but affecting rainfall, soil salinity, air purity, and the nutritional value of readily available foods.
Climate change is being blamed for everything. In the Bangladesh example, it's a cop out for the politicians allied with business that see all sorts of contracts on the climate change horizon and these partners ignored simple cost-free labour intensive measures that will make a difference. “Any slightly odd weather such as a harsh winter storm, perhaps one extra hurricane making landfall on the US Gulf Coast in one summer, is taken as evidence of impending climate meltdown”, says Hong Kong University geologist Jason Ali.

The Doomsday side and the other side
While proponents of such as the Peak Oil phenomenon take recourse in such as James Hansen:
“...begin to move our energy systems in a fundamentally different direction within about a decade, or we will have pushed the planet past a tipping point beyond which it will be impossible to avoid far-ranging undesirable consequences”. Global warming of 2–3°C above the present temperature, he warns, would produce a planet without Arctic sea-ice, a catastrophic sea level rise in the pipeline of around 25 metres, and a super-drought in the American west, southern Europe, the Middle East and parts of Africa. “Such a scenario threatens even greater calamity, because it could unleash positive feedbacks such as melting of frozen methane in the Arctic, as occurred 55 million years ago, when more than 90% of species on Earth went extinct”.
...others find that people are beset with enough scary scenarios and doubts without additional scaremongering even if it is done with the best on intentions, that of getting people off their bums and into the cause - saving Plant Earth.

The other ‘side’ would rather look to the stands taken by such as Dr. Timothy Ball who reminds his readers that the Greenhouse Effect is a poorly chosen term as our planet has an open system whereas the greenhouse (with the door shut) is a closed system. Also, Climate Change, poorly chosen, in that the weather itself is hardly predictable and as climate is the mean of weather variations, is a multiple number of times more difficult to foretell. Also, there is no ‘hole’ in the ozone layer, it’s just that the ozone layer is weaker over the Antarctic - due to the effects of cosmic radiation. The media loves buzz-words but crowd pleasers are just not on in this case.
For Dr Ball. “The ozone issue is worth revisiting because of the parallels between its origins and evolution and the current global warming and the climate change debate. ... the ozone issue offers valuable lessons about how to establish the scientific reality about climate change currently suppressed by exploitation of fear and lack of understanding....” He quotes University of Waterloo physics and astronomy professor, Qing-Bin Lu, who published a paper showing that cosmic rays are the major cause of variations in the extent of the so-called ozone hole.
Remember the fuss over CFCs? These were banned and the HCFCs came on-stream but the entire episode is called into question by Dr Ball who takes the stand that public understanding is essential to prevent politicians pursuing expensive and totally unnecessary climate change policies - as in the case of the CFCs.
Also, that: “politicians did not understand the science, were not interested in the facts, and merely wanted to make green political points in this era of environmental hysteria.” In fact, they produced real and potential problems because the research and testing was pushed aside.
For Dr Ball, that was only one an example of spending billions of dollars, disrupting people’s lives and economies, to solve a nonexistent problem.
As for Mr Lovelock, now leaning on the side of the doomsayers, as commentator Jeff Goodell says in his essay on this creator of Gaia: “... he may well be wrong, not because he's misread the science (although that’s certainly possible) but because he's misread human beings.”
“Few serious scientists doubt that we're on the verge of a climate catastrophe. But for all Lovelock's sensitivity to the subtle dynamics and feedback loops in the climate system, he is curiously tone-deaf to the subtle dynamics and feedback loops in the human system. He believes that, despite our iPhones and space shuttles, we are still tribal animals, largely incapable of acting for the greater good or making long-term decisions for our own welfare.”
"Our moral progress," says Lovelock, "has not kept up with our technological progress." But maybe that's exactly what the coming apocalypse is all about Mr Goodell adds.
We do not see a catastrophe happening at all. Yes, there is a big job to do - look at mainland China now, look at the old Eastern Block countries’ industrial areas, the oil extraction zones, the strip mining areas outside the developed countries, and can we locate those hazardous chemicals and radioactive wastes dumped at sea? Look at the populations increasing, the pure water shortages and the food crisis in the less developed world, at the fact of over-fishing!
One of the questions that fascinates Lovelock is that life has been evolving on Earth for more than 3 billion years -- and to what purpose? "Like it or not, we are the brains and nervous system of Gaia," he says. "We have now assumed responsibility for the welfare of the planet. How will we manage it?"
Our real problem environmentally is not climate change, it’s the environmental degradation caused by the activities of mankind and it’s mankind that will in the end suffer the most.
“Study of the geological record of climate reveals many instances of natural changes of a speed and magnitude that would be hazardous to human life and economic well being should they be revisited upon our planet today,” says Robert Carter, research professor, James Cook University, USA.
“Many of these changes are unpredictable, even in hindsight. That such natural changes will occur again in the future, both coolings and warmings, is certain. It is therefore indeed true that future climate change is an important subject that requires to be approached via appropriate public policy-making. Unfortunately, current policy approaches have been formulated from a combustible combination of poor science, special-interest-group pleading and public hysteria, which together distract from, rather than deal with, the very real risks of natural climate change. Indeed, the risks of natural change are almost entirely ignored by the IPCC and by the politicians, press and public who participate in the current climate ‘debate’.”
This has been summarised by IPCC senior scientist and lead author, Kevin Trenberth (as long ago as 2007), who writes: ‘There are no (climate) predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been’. Instead, there are only ‘what if’ projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios’. For ‘none of the models used by IPCC is initialised to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models corresponds even remotely to the current observed climate’.
“Despite the great variability and high magnitudes of natural climate change, it is clearly also the case that human activities have a measurable effect on local climates. For example, the concrete, glass, steel and macadam that are used to build a connurbation absorb more radiant heat from the sun during the day than did the pre-existing natural vegetation. The result is a local warming called the urban heat island effect which, for a large city, has a magnitude of several degrees.
“Alternatively, when humans clear forested areas, the pasture or crops that are planted are often lighter in colour than was the forest. This results in reflection of more of the incoming solar energy than before, and hence cooling. So humans, through changed land usage, have an effect on local climate that is variously warming or cooling.
“Summing these local signals all over the globe, it follows that humans must exercise an effect on global climate also. The question in context, therefore, is not ‘do humans have an effect on global climate’, but rather ‘what is the sign and magnitude of the net global human effect on climate, and can it be measured?’”
Mr Trenberth says that public discussion about ‘carbon policy’ or ‘reducing greenhouse gases’ centres around the need to reduce human emissions of carbon dioxide. Yet even educated persons mostly have no comprehension that the overwhelmingly dominant greenhouse gas is water vapour; that, as a minor greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide causes less than 4% of the warming produced by all
atmospheric greenhouse gases; and that human emissions represent just a tiny portion (~3%) of that 4%. What is presently missing from the public debate, then – and it is not provided by computer model outputs, either – is an appreciation of the small scale (in context) of human emissions.”
The IPCC is constituted under the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), and defines climate change as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. Thus at its point of origin and reporting, the IPCC is set up to consider not climate change in general, but only change caused by human perturbation of the atmosphere. This is an unbalanced brief that predictably and inevitably leads to unbalanced advice. [Mr Trenbert again.]
The media hardly distinguishes just what the IPPC is reporting, nor on the difference between computer projections and real-world predictions.

Emissions Trading
“There is presently animated public discussion about introduction of carbon dioxide emissions trading legislation in both Australia and New Zealand in order to ‘stop global warming’,” continues Mr Trenbert. “This planned policy development is underpinned by a political conviction that flies in the face of science reality, and is now maintained by a highly diverse and very strong group of special interests. The self-interest groups include politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, environmental lobby groups, other priests, energy companies, other big businesses, financial marketeers and the media.
“The 2008 global food crisis is an example of previous well-intentioned environmental policy relating to climate change that went sadly wrong. The disastrous results of the idea of putting corn in your petrol tank have included an increase in grocery bills in most western nations, food rationing in parts of the USA, and food riots, starvation and an accelerated cutting down of native rainforests in third world countries. These results were, of course, unintended, but
they most certainly were not unanticipated. It’s simply that those who predicted the negative effects of the biodiesel craze were not listened to, their voices lost against the clamour of shrill environmental hysteria.”
A famous earlier example of the same phenomenon was the world ban on DDT use, which was similarly based upon false environmental scaremongering. Thankfully, the DDT ban was finally lifted by the UN, but not before it had resulted in many millions of unnecessary deaths in underdeveloped countries. Nowadays DDT is used for public sanitation and for anti-mosquito measures but not as a pesticide in agriculture.
“These earlier examples of tragically miscarried policy epitomize the pitfalls of listening to the siren song of the great eco-salvationist scare of our age - that of dangerous human-caused global warming. The economic and social effects of schemes like biofuel subsidy and emissions trading are costly, and above all regressive. That is, they will hurt most the underprivileged in all societies. Given that schemes like these are unlikely to exert any measurable influence on future climate, such policies can only be adjudged as immoral.”
As for carbon offset trading, again it is useful to quote the people at the Transnational Institute: “...the existence of offset schemes presents the public with an opportunity to take a ‘business as usual’ attitude to the climate change threat.
Instead of encouraging individuals and institutions to profoundly change consumption patterns as well as social, economic and political structures,
we are being asked to believe that paying a little extra for certain goods and services is sufficient. For example, if one is willing to pay a bit more for ‘offset petrol’ one doesn't have to worry about how much is consumed, because the price automatically includes offsetting the emissions it produces.”
I would like to give the penultimate word to the same people: “...the solutions to climate change need to be much more systemic, empowered and politically engaged than is permitted within the scope of carbon offsets.”
I would add though - the nuclear threat far outweighs anything else on the environmental front. Anything to do with war is a more immediate threat as conventional bombs and mines are instant destroyers of life. This is why nuclear disarmament is top of our list, and a clear and immediate initiative toward progressive and proportional global nuclear disarmament, as is conventional weapons reduction programmes and armies returning to base camp within their own borders.
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Grass roots movement against nuclear weapons
Rajendra K Pachauri interviewed by Tony Henderson in Dhaka

Rajendra K Pachauri was born in Nainital, India, on 20 August 1940 and was elected as Chairman of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), established by World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. He has taken charge as Chairman, IPCC from 20th April 2002 onwards. He has been active in several international forums dealing with the subject of climate change and its policy dimensions.
In his introduction to the theme of the day, climate change, Patchauri summed up his long standing links with the country and remarked: "Bangladesh has progressed remarkably over the years, and on a number of development indicators has done extremely well. To a large extent the success of this country can be ascribed to the strengths of civil society. The NGO sector in Bangladesh stands out as an inspiring example of what people can do to improve their own lot and to bring about progress by harnessing people power. Like other nations, if strong and regular government had accompanied these efforts Bangladesh would have done even better. However, the example of this nation and the manner in which civil society in that country has been organized to create success in a number of fields, perhaps, provides a refreshing indication of how other poor countries can also move on by building up their NGOs and grassroots efforts without waiting for a top down approach."
In a period when major change is essential - on the political front but also in fields like the energy sector which needs radical transformation and meeting the threat of climate change, the role of communities and groups led by civil society organizations remains crucially important. As a result, the quality of governance and the performance of governments will also be improved. Patchauri sees that it would be useful to create conditions in poor countries whereby civil society can thrive and take the lead in moving towards the goal of sustainable development.
Dr Pachauri was interviewed by the media following his discourse at the DCCI event in Dhaka 1 November 2008, and asked if climate change is going to be taken seriously given that the financial crisis was taking priority at the moment.
"I think it is just a matter of time. Once things settle down I think the leadership of countries all over the world is going to look at some of the fundamental flaws in the way we have been growing and developing and climate change is not going to go away. People are going to be much more deeply concerned about it. I also see that every crisis is also an opportunity and I think the world is going to look at the opportunities that this crisis is throwing up."
Asked about the Kyoto Accord, he said, "The Kyoto Accord? Well it is too late now. There is a new round of agreement that is going to come into play, hopefully by the end of next year, and that is going to produce an important document."
On the question of having the same regulations imposed on developing and developed countries, Pachauri said: "Certainly not. After all, this is a problem caused by cumulative emissions, as a result of which certain countries have reached a level of prosperity, so how can you expect countries like Bangladesh where large percentages of people don't even have access to electricity to forego those opportunities? We are not living on two different planets! We are on the same planet. So I think you have to realize that you cannot have a world divided between the haves and have-nots. There will be havoc if you accept that law. So I think we have to look at it in a much larger context and certainly the developing countries should not make the mistakes of the developed world, but at the same time there are some things we have to be allowed to do to wipe out poverty. I think this whole issue of expecting the developing world to forego opportunities for growth and development is not only inequitable it is unethical."
Further questions were asked on diverting food crops to other uses, biofuels.
"Well you see there are good biofuels and bad biofuels. What we have been promoting for instance, converting corn into ethanol, is a bad choice but there are second generation biofuels that are being developed. There are plants - Jetropha - that grow in degraded land, that are not a food crop and in fact not even cattle will eat those. So there are options like that we could pursue."
He declared himself optimistic about the current moves to fight against climate change, an optimist in the medium and in the long term. "Absolutely. I think things are changing, there is no question about it. The extent of awareness that you have in the world wide today is very high, positive actions will prevail."
Asked why it was that the nuclear weapons issue gets no play in the media Pachauri replied: "The reason is that in the nuclear field again there are the haves and have-nots and the media and public opinion are essentially dominated by those who have the nuclear weapons - the media is taken by them. The media is controlled so much by the countries that have nuclear weapons that essentially this is not the kind of publicity they want. I think it is very sad that after well over fifty years following nuclear bomb development and use, we are still not even concerned about nuclear proliferation. I think it is highly tragic. I think there has to be a grass roots movement about this all over the world."
Pertinent to the day and occasion the context was set for a further question: "While Bangladesh does not have an immediate problem in that it does not have these bombs and is not a target either, India, its neighbour, does have those nuclear weapons and any war would have a disastrous effect even in Bangladesh. Given this fact, do you imagine there is a possibility for this very active chamber of commerce (the DCCI) to pro-actively promote a decommissioning of nuclear weapons, starting from the nuclear - to do this by announcing an initiative aimed at India and China? Should this be done in a business-oriented chamber like this, or is it the wrong place?"
"No, it's a good start. There has to be a million voices, so I agree with you - allow a thousand flowers to bloom," ended Patchauri.

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World Centre of Humanist Studies
Punta de Vacas Park, Argentina
First International Symposium
on
Ethics in Knowledge

Punta de Vacas, near Mendoza - Argentina
November 13-15, 2008


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Human Being: intention and transformation
A talk by Hugo Novotny
- on the occasion of the first day of this symposium
When speaking about the Universalistic Humanism vision, we are making reference to both a special look supported by assumptions, beliefs and a cosmogonic conception; as well as to the particular way in which this vision understands the “reality”, the world around us, its history, its present and its future perspectives.
In his book “Humanize the Earth”, Silo asks “What reality are you speaking of to a fish or a reptile; to a gigantic animal, a tiny insect, or a bird; to a child or to an old person; to one who sleeps or one who keeps watching in cold calculation or feverish terror?”; and then he asserts: “I say that the echo of the real murmurs or resounds according to the ear that hears, and that for other ears what you call “reality” would play a different song”.
So then, we will talk about looks and landscapes.
In each and every look about the world and men, there are two basic concepts setting order and structure: “human being” and “human conscience”.
From the Universalistic Humanism standpoint, human beings are neither rational nor social animals. From this viewpoint the difference between human beings and dolphins is not due to language complexity and multiplicity; neither do humans differ from bees and ants due to their complex social organization. Universalistic Humanism claims that human beings are historical beings open to the world and able of accumulating experience both personally and socially, beings who are capable of transforming through social action not only the natural and human landscape inhabited, but also his own nature. A being in development, still incomplete, essentially a being of change.
As regards conscience, the Universalistic Humanism view is far from considering it a passive conscience, just reflecting external “reality”, nor is it a sort of sponge absorbing the knowledge given; let alone a submissive and obedient conscience doing blindly whatever is told - namely orders, watchwords or seductive illusions promoted by opinion formers.
Human conscience is active, capable not only of reacting in compensatory ways to the environment stimuli but of transforming this environment as well; this conscience is able to reflect and imagine, to choose and to create, to model possible futures thanks to its intention.
The Universalistic Humanism vision stresses the increasing role of human intention in the planet evolutionary process; a critical role in each and every point of historical junction. In the light of our vision, it is the intention of overcoming pain and suffering, of trespassing beyond the limits of time and space imposed by one’s own body, that is what gives impulse and direction to human action.
However, which is the landscape that we, humanists, can see in the actual world?
Unfortunately, it is such a big disaster... Excuse me, I would rather say, fortunately, it is such a deep crisis we are going through that causes human beings to stop and think. To stop and reflect, and to wonder: Where do I go? Where do they want to lead me? Where do I want to go?...Sometimes, the reflection becomes even deeper and we wonder: Who am I? Who do they want me to be? What do I want to be? What do I want to do with my life in Earth? What is the sense of my life?
All the latter in the existential field.
In the psychosocial field we have noticed a morphological fracture in the system of values leading human behavior till today and its evident replacement by a new one. The lack of coincidence between inner representation of “high” as a space where beings endowed with wisdom, strength and goodness live and act; and the social reality actually perceived, in which diffidence to “the powerful” grows day after day, a fast-fading confidence in their capacity and intention to solve the problems that the majority suffer from; this non-coincidence has created an immense emptiness and confusion both in individuals and in large human communities. This emptiness drives some people to violence or to commit suicide, to self-closure or madness; and in others begins to be filled with a new system of reference that stresses the meaning of the “deep”. This “deep” refers to what is felt, reflected, compromised and humanizing. It means the sacred in its widest sense. This new morphology of values resounds completely with concepts and phenomena such as nets, communities, interactivity, self-regulation, self-organization, values that are accelerating the transformation of psychosocial horizons.
The cause and effect mechanics, the Newtonian world linearity, even the predictability of Einstenian relativity, are clearly stepping aside to give room to the multidimensional universe - increasingly undetermined and paradoxical - of the quantum theory, the chaos, and the entropic systems of unstable equilibrium.
In the new paradigms, laws are now of concomitance, structure, cycles, the overcoming of the old by the new. In this new horizon, the great actor and vector of history is human intentionality walking forward on its spiral-shaped way of evolution.
Let’s see. Have you thought about the consequences of the human conscience discarding time linearity with causes and effects and all the other laws associated to that illusion...? Sure, it will then be the people from some other places, those that will have to think what to do, for example, the Swiss... They have rather dedicated themselves to investigate profound psychology, or to produce cheese and chocolates, and forget about clocks. And by the way, they should forget also about the banks, which are part of the same illusion.
In other words, human conscience is at this very moment thriving to get rid of the corset that means linear temporality and discovering simultaneity, resonance, synchrony, as new laws and phenomena of open systems which will modify radically the way of structuring reality!
Moreover, have you thought about the consequences of the human conscience breaking free from the ties imposed by natural, spatial and temporal determinations, freed from its physical prosthesis? And, we are not talking here only about undeniable and subtle technological accomplishments such as virtual reality, augmented reality or tele-presence. We are talking also about the real possibility that, in a brave and intentional act, human conscience would decide to break up with its internal contradictions, to yield its heart to love and mercy towards all living beings and fly... so as to gain enough inner unity allowing it to project itself beyond the body and time, without dissolving or losing reversibility.
Regarding the social field, there are some problems to solve.
Nowadays, we are living in a complex world where the fast-growing social entropy and the old social-political and economic structures are blowing away. And in this situation of indetermination, ancient grudges and fanaticisms still survive against a background of widespread irritation; all the latter in a planet overcrowded by nuclear and meteorological weapons, and soon – if we do not take actions urgently – nano-technological weapons. Any one of these weapons, or worst of it, all of them together, are capable of putting an end to the existence of this beautiful blue planet, with all it carries on its intersidereal journey and convert it into an additional belt of asteroids like the one that is already wandering around, inert, between Jupiter and Mars, not that far from here, in our very same Solar System.
This wonderful process that began its gestation at the heart of a star, where the carbon chain evolved until it originated life, and this life, in its implacable advance, that became human life. This included a process where, human beings, step by step, developed from a complete dependence on natural environmental conditions to progressively master fire, energy, and the physical, chemical and biological processes. This evolution has continued until the present time. Nowadays, humans have learnt to not only produce and control nuclear reactions – the same as the ones occurring in the nucleus of stars - to control the climate, the processes of production and artificial reproduction of life, but also this same human being is on the way to achieve comprehensive manipulation of genetic codes, brining about the profound transformation of the human body and its psychical structure.
In this wonderful - almost miraculous- process of advances and retreats, but always in spiral ascent, we have arrived, once again, to a crossroads.
Will there be a Flood this time? Will there be a Glacial Era, a volcanic eruption or nuclear bombs?
How it would be? What will life do - human life- in order to jump into a new stage in its evolution?
From a Universalistic Humanism perspective, the imperative in these times is the active resistance to each and every kind of violence, inside and outside the human being.
As occurs in every system of high complexity with unstable equilibrium, where the least variation in any of its parts might cause a total change in the state of the system, so it is with human beings in that intimate choice that will define the future course of human history.
We strongly believe that the intentional choice of the direction where our strength, our intelligence, knowledge, our feelings and our capacity for action and transformation should be applied, will be the decisive factor in this precise historical moment.
Nobody can remain indifferent under the dilemma we are facing as specie: with the confrontation among the cultures, the peoples and individuals, or convergence in diversity, to keep on refining the methods of domination and destruction, or to adhere bravely to peace and non-violence in every geographic place, in every people of every culture, in every continent, and finally across the whole world.
Our dear friend Salvatore Puledda, one of the Humanist World Center founders, a friend (who is) still brightly alive in our hearts, proposed the ethical compromise ceremony, which we intend to perform before the symposium’s closure, and the World March launching that will take place immediately after the ceremony, proposing also that this launch will prove to be the first determined steps in the most constructive direction.
To say it in Silo’s own words, pronounced in this very place 39 years ago: “My brother, my sister, keep these simple commandments, as simple as these rocks, this snow, and this sun that bless us. Carry peace within you, and carry it to others”.
Nothing else, thank you.
Punta de Vacas, November 13th 2008. hugonov@gmail.com


Nepal Humanist Forum
"Building Unity with Peace and Non-Violence"
Kathmandu, Nepal,
29th of November, 2008The First Nepali forum is a moment to bring together people of different organisations, as a moment of reflection on the current situation of our country and to discuss sustainable and feasible alternatives of actions to improve our society in the areas of Women, Youth and Communications, Education, Health and Quality of life and Cultural Diversity. The framework for this forum is strongly rooted in the ideas of Peace and Non-Violence as conditions and the approach to the ways to produce advances that make sense and open the future for all of Nepal's people. We warmly invite you (and your organization), your friends and family to participate in this new initiative.
Place: Sagarmatha Hall, Padma Kanya Collage, Bagbazar, Kathmandu.
Time: 10AM to 4PM
Language: Nepali and English
Tulsi Sigdel, Forum Co-ordinator,
Representative of the new Universal Humanism, Nepal

Contact details: 977-01-4811852
Email: <tulsisigdel>


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Nepal: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/nepalhumanistforum/

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E-mail: tonyhen@humanist.org.hk
Web: http://home.pacific.net.hk/~tonyhen/